GRAIN traders are tipping growers can expect higher prices than in December now that the State’s grain harvest is nearing completion.
Australian Premium White (APW) wheat was fetching $192.40 a tonne and feed wheat, delivered at Temora early this week, $162.60/t.
Maarty van Egmond, AWB’s NSW regional manager, said pool prices were the best indicator, but prices were down on last year.
In the AWB pool Australian Standard White (ASW) was fetching $177.47/t and Australian General Purpose (AGP1) $167.53/t.
Mr van Egmond estimated prices had rallied between $5/t and $10/t since December.
“Feed wheat in the pool from last year is currently sitting at about $190/t so prices are $30/t to $35/t less than what growers were getting last year,” he said.
He said the recent US Department of Agriculture report showed corn stocks and yields had come in greater than expected, and “as far as supply goes the market is comfortable”.
“There have been two back-to-back years of good yields in NSW and depots are all bulging at the seams at the moment.”
He said there were currently weather concerns around the globe, particularly in Argentina, and prices could be volatile as the US emerges from winter.
“In terms of stock globally, particularly for wheat, the market is very happy.”
Any new crop concerns that come about from weather will bring upside potential, but he said there’s plenty of wheat in the world today.
“From a price point of view, markets look at availability.
“It’s interesting to note the demand for corn into ethanol and into feed in the US is growing.
“If there’s a hiccup they need to look elsewhere and they’ll look at wheat.
“If that happens we could see rallying in the wheat market.
“Everyone’s worrying what the final corn yield could be.”
He said the US didn’t want to force prices up, but a yield of 150 bushels an acre was good. If that dropped to 145bu/ac, however, there would be issues.
“So many acres go in you don’t need too much of a decrease in the yield to have a flow-on effect.
“We are waiting to hear at the moment, but that will all play out in the next few months.”
For growers ready to sell wheat now, Mr van Egmond estimated prices 15 to 20 per cent lower for a cash sale, but if you put it in an AWB pool you could get “an advance up front of 75pc and continue to manage assets”.
“Our pools will close at the end of January and there’s been a big push towards selling to the pool, particularly in the last two to three weeks.”
Graincorp’s Angus Trigg said year-on-year the overall harvest was slightly above the long-term average, in spite of localised flooding.
“The shorter harvest this year has enabled us to control costs,” he said.
“We beat the record daily receivals from last year early in the harvest and are now up about more than 10.7 million tonnes.
He said about six million tonnes was carried over from last year.
Mr Trigg said there’d been no significant bottlenecks in delivery, and supply has been able to keep moving through the network.
“Queensland and northern NSW were largely off before most of the rain hit.
“Victoria’s harvest is largely done now, despite hot and windy conditions limiting work during the new year period.
“There were increased segregations of grain, but not quite as many as last year.”
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