However, the November-January forecast, released Friday, predicts above average totals for central and western Northern Territory, and northeast Western Australia.

The Bureau says the pattern of seasonal rainfall odds across Australia is a result of higher than average temperatures in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

The contribution of the warm Pacific biases the climate towards below average rainfall across eastern Australia.

The warm Indian Ocean promotes wetter than average conditions across the tropics and in western WA.

But the chances of exceeding the median rainfall for November to January are between 25 per cent and 40pc over southeast Queensland and the eastern half of NSW (see map).

This means that for every 10 years with ocean patterns like the current, about six or seven years are expected to be drier than average over these regions, while about three or four years are wetter.

Adding to the bleak outlook for Queensland and NSW, the Bureau predicts warmer than average daytime temperatures for that region over the next three months.

The chance that the average November-January maximum temperature will exceed the long-term median maximum temperature is between 60pc and 75pc across most of Queensland and northern and eastern NSW.

Contrasting the eastern outlook, the chance of wetter than average conditions is between 60pc and 65pc for western and central parts of the NT and northeast WA.

Across the rest of the country, including Victoria, South Australia, much of WA and Queensland, the chances of exceeding the median rainfall for October to December are between 40pc and 60pc, meaning that above average falls are about as equally likely as below average falls in these regions.

An El Niño event persists across the Pacific Basin, with most leading climate models suggesting tropical ocean temperatures will remain above El Niño thresholds until at least early 2010.

The Bureau says El Niño events are usually - but not always - associated with below normal rainfall in the second half of the year across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia.

The SOI is approximately -8 for the 30 days ending 20 October.

The average minimum temperature for November to January is favoured to be above the long-term median minimum temperature over Australia, with the exception of Tasmania (see map).