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Wool price check temporary: analysts

28 Aug, 2009 06:54 PM
CONCERNS are rising that the wool price surge earlier in August inflated the market prematurely, lifting it before the world economy is ready to sustain a true price recovery.

As a result, the eastern market indicator (EMI) fell by 1.3pc at auctions this week, ending its price surge over the previous three weeks.

But, hopefully, that will be seen as a temporary hitch before a longer-term recovery.

Rodwells Victorian wool manager Michael de Kleuver, for instance, expected the price rally to subside this week.

“The run has been pretty hard since the first day of the break so it was always going to take a breather,” he said.

This view was shared by Platinum Agribusiness analysts.

“The market was probably due for a correction as the (hoped for) recovery is still too much in its infancy to justify big moves upwards,” its weekly report said.

“Longer term we remain fundamentally bullish.”

Despite the run of disappointing price falls for wool this year, Mr de Kleuver said a positive sentiment was evident.

“Gloom is residing and because wool has a long lead time buyers are thinking about wool garment manufactures in the months to come,” he said.

“Obviously there are concerns of supply – we are coming into spring and there has not been a sale until this week above 40,000 bales."

Just over 46,000 bales, however, are expected to be offered nationally next week, but that includes the first Newcastle sale for the new wool selling season which started in July.

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comments


Date: Newest first | Oldest first
Fundamentally bullish? Fundamental BS. The huge cut in production which the Howard government forced by dumping the stockpile left wool traders and processors in 2003 with no security of supply. Therefore they could not make secure plans for trading in wool. Therefore there was no incentive for them to invest in the promotion of products which they might not be able to supply. That situation has continued since, and was never worse than it is right now.
Posted by Ted O'Brien., 30/08/2009 3:31:33 PM
Wool is sold to a spot market in China that delivers a product at a price to a market working 18 months out...unless the focus is on the people transforming the fibre at retail the industry will always be stuck with the lowest possible price....so ??? Bullish...probably not! PS which industry are we focussed on - apparel, interior textiles or bedding???
Posted by interested observer, 31/08/2009 10:02:11 AM
Ahh, the old 'supply is falling so prices should rise' argument. Same story for the last few years now from nearly the same people. If you have 10 bales but demand is for 5, what do you think happens to the price. Wool is always a demand driven commodity, not supply. We could have 46 thousand bales this week but low demand particularly for those poor superfine growers in Newcastle, another hit for them to come.
Posted by Daytona, 31/08/2009 10:41:29 PM

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