THE AUSTRALIAN wool market fell for a fourth session last week to the lowest level in more than a month amid speculation Chinese mills had started stockpiling wool and banks would move to rein in access to finance and contain threats of runaway growth.
Losses last week left the AWEX Eastern Market Indicator down 0.4 per cent to 915 cents a kilogram on Friday – the lowest level since December 16 – while the United States exchange rate lifted by 1.6 per cent.
Falls last week left the average micron price guide down 3pc, dampening the mood of wool pundits hopeful that that wool market would continue to surge after the 2010 opening sale’s 47c/kg lift.
Commentators are cautious that Chinese buyers have reined in their orders after its strong January rush in reaction to central banks in China winding back lending, and European retail sales remaining stalled.
However, Rodwells’ wool manager Michael De Kleuver doesn’t expect the correction to persist and said the wool market should continue to strengthen through the year particularly as supply drops off.
“Business with China has been a bit difficult in the last month which has put pressure on the market…, but while the benchmark indicator may have changed the medium wool is still trading high and cardings are continuing to sell on a 20-year high,” he said.
“I can’t see anything really freighting in the long term.”
He noted the AWEX-EMI has had its sixth consecutive week of floating in the 915 to 926 c/kg range.
Woolgrowers contemplating futures may have to wait until an anticipated mid-year rise in the market as futures forced settlement prices 26c/kg lower last Thursday, Platinum Agribusiness director Bill Mitchell said.
“There is not a compelling argument to forward sell as its only been a bit over a year since the market touched its lows - certainly fine wool prices are not attractive enough,” he said.
“It is starting to look like this correction is going to be longer and deeper than we had previously thought - perhaps because in this environment of still-uncertain demand buyers are going to sit back longer and let the market drift further before re-entering,” Mr Mitchell said in a note to clients.