Don't sell the sheep flock. Those without cropping expertise or equipment may well be better off doing what they do best rather than chasing the perceived boom in grain.
Sheep will survive and even thrive again, according to western Victorian consultants, Graham Lean and Charles de Fegley.
Both are certainly not sheep advocates but have been urging clients to think twice before the wholesale selling of sheep.
"The biggest variation of profit is within enterprises, not between them which tells you that the way to find better returns is often within the present business and not to swap to another game," Dr Lean said.
"Clearly moving to a cropping enterprise, if there is none already, involves a new level of expertise and investment.
"Keep the sheep option open is what I have been telling my people.
"Once you factor in contractors and the high input prices you may be no better off over 2-3 years, particularly in high rainfall areas where high stocking rates are easier to maintain in these dry years."
The right management, good pastures, good genetics, high productivity and high labour efficiency are the key areas to get right for profitable livestock enterprises – and these can compete with crops, according to the Mackinnon Project vet.
That said, he has not been surprised by the tsunami of sheep and wool growers ripping up old pastures to put in crop but said it is far from the end for wool, lambs or beef.
"It suits some people who are geared up for it but I really don't think we have hit a new super-cycle for grain prices because over the last few months we have seen prices on the Chicago Board of Trade for wheat move from $500 per tonne to just under $300 in response to improving supply," he said.
"Recent concerns about the US corn crop have lifted prices again.
"But given the huge jump in crop costs, the breakeven price for croppers is closer to $250/t, making $300/t nothing special and that's assuming you get a crop."
Sheep have a future for a number of reasons, according to Dr Lean.
Farm benchmarking studies have shown some woolgrowers are making good money and says those that cannot make money from wool at the present price levels have a management problem, not a price problem.
Cropping is no silver bullet according to farmer and consultant with Mike Stephens and Associates, Charles de Fegley, who said there were many complementary aspects to a sheep-cropping enterprise that deserve further investigation.
"Clovers are a very cheap form of nitrogen fertilizer for crops, grazing cereal crops can be a great feed for stock," he said.
"We need every free kick we can get so seeing how the two can work together is important."
Mr de Fegley said there was an old adage that changing your farming enterprise by more than 10pc in any one year was too risky.
"Cropping is not a silver bullet and can go wrong. Sure, the cost of supplementary feeding can be expensive but it is unlikely to be moreso than the recent rise in nitrogen fertilizers."
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