LIVESTOCK commentators have questioned the optimistic Meat and Livestock Australia lamb production forecast, suggesting the 4pc increase in lamb production in 2009 is a “rubbery guess.”
Elders Riverina livestock manager Ron Rutledge said nine years of prolonged dry conditions had slashed ewe numbers in the Riverina by 40 per cent and had contributed to lambing percentage falling to 50-80 per cent this year as a result of poor cycling ewes.
“Where they got four per cent from is anyone guess – extra volume won’t be coming from the Riverina,” Mr Rutledge told Rural Press this week.
Meat and Livestock Australia forecast Australian lamb production to increase by four per cent in 2009, with the rise expected to come over the first half of the year in its 2009 Sheep Industry Projections update released this month.
The report showed that the national sheep flock would fall a further 7 per cent in 2008-09 to 72 million head, its lowest level since 1916, and lamb slaughter would rise by 2.6pc
Responding to the forecast Hamilton Luff and Burton livestock agent Brett George, Wagga Wagga, NSW, acknowledged that a shift towards cropping in southern NSW and off-loading stock because of dry condition had caused sheep numbers to fall by a quarter.
“The numbers of breeding livestock are not out there….I’d say it is more like lamb numbers will be 4-5 per cent lower this year.”
He said hot temperatures in the joining season had contributed to early drop lambing percentages falling to 65-85 per cent, compared to 85-95pc last year.
“Last week, I drove from Urana to Narrandera to Ganmain and only saw two mobs of cattle and one mob of sheep,” he said.
"Livestock have disapeared."
Clare, SA, ewe scanner Annabel Cox scans about 100,000 ewes a year and said her tests pointed to low conception rates this year – with adult ewes around 15-20 per cent dry and hogget’s around 30per cent dry.
Ms Cox said this reflected the heat stress ewes and rams experienced during the extreme summer tempretures.
All Stock veterinarian Michaela Seal, Narrogin, WA, said that scanning percentages had “been the same as other years. The main issue was the drastic reduction in the number of ewes being scanned.”
Kerr and Co livestock manager Craig Pertzell said sheep numbers and lamb marking percentages around Hamilton, Vic, were stable with 120-130 per cent common for most of the better Merino and crossbred operations.
However, Advanced Livestock Services Stephen Spiker, Hamilton, confirmed reports that of the 60,000 ewes scanned in his region 15 per cent were barren.
He put this down to the hot weather in February.
MLA sheep meat analyst Kara Jones stood by the forecast, saying the forecast figures derived from a “wide range” of sources including Australian Bureau of Statistic and National Livestock Reporting Service data, commodity forecasts, stock agents and ram sale information.
“It’s a forecast - no-one has a crystal ball, but I am confident with the information that we have got there,” she said.
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