AUSTRALIANS piled an average 2pc more lamb onto their plates last year compared with the previous year, contrary to speculation that the global financial crises could hurt protein consumption.
Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) sheep meat analyst Kara Jones said on Friday the lamb industry was in a strong position to expand and continue its good prices.
”This is an impressive outcome considering the global financial crisis and economic slowdown and volatile trade conditions,” she said.
Fletcher International managing director Roger Fletcher told Rural Press lamb prices would not retract in the foreseeable future but producers could not expect to get $150/head all the time.
“Lambs 10 years ago were making about $20 a head," he said.
"We’ve come a long way because we have been able to access more markets by breaking the product up into cuts and serving the customers what they require.
"Domestically, the advent of special cuts has taken lamb away from being a commodity type product.”
In high volume sheep meat consuming nations, such as as China, Europe and the Middle East, sheep stocks are down and Australia is well positioned to benefit.
“All in all, I am confident of the (sheep meat) future because we don't class it as a commodity and we can deliver it to the countries as required.”
Over the 12 months to June this year, domestic lamb retail prices have increased by 11pc year on year.
Prices are tipped to rise another 2pc next year.
Lamb exports are tipped by the MLA to rise nearly 6pc from 2008 to 2009, and by 18pc on 2008 volumes in 2010, helped by a drop in the Australian dollar and the fall in global lamb supply.
It is expected lamb exports to the Middle East will rise by 36pc this year.
MLA predicts that in 2009, the Middle East will be consuming 22pc of Australia’s total export lambs, up 2pc on 2008.
Consumption will fall in the United States by 3.8pc, to 24pc of total exports.
China will be consuming 7.6pc more lamb in 2009, up to 9pc of our total exports, fueled by insufficient domestic Chinese supply.
However, MLS says the performance of the rest of the sheep meat industry has been marred by the continued rapid liquidation of the national flock over the period and the consequent inability of Australia to meet the growing export demand for both mutton and live sheep exports.
The percentage of breeding ewes is expected to fall to 45 million head this year, down 55pc since 1980.
Roger Fletcher said it was too early to predict where the nation’s flock would be next year but said MLA’s prediction of 17pc drop in exports was conservative.
“I take all figures with caution, but we have had a bad lambing in Western Australia, lambing in the north has been fair but numbers down south have been terrible,” he said.
He said Australia’s mutton kill was going to be very low next year, as producers attempted to retain and build up breeding numbers.
This supply shortage, however, would encourage sustained, high mutton prices.
MLA has forecast the volume of Australian mutton exports to slump 17pc in the year ahead, as the effects of farm enterprise shifts and drought cut the national sheep flock a further 7pc, down to 72 million head.
MLA also has forecast sharp falls in the volume of the live export market, as supply restricts the ability to meet key market demand.
Good prices for the reduced supply of sheep and lambs, however, should be maintained.
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