The seasonal outlook for the area planted to winter crops is at a crucial point in terms of both rainfall and soil profile, according to the latest winter crop production forecast from the National Australia Bank, which is forecasting a slightly smaller crop this year.
According to the NAB's latest forecast, there is a favourable profile in some areas of Australia but others require sowing rains now.
"Our economists are forecasting Australian wheat production to fall by less than one per cent in 2009-10 to 21.2 million tonnes, as an expected 5pc fall in the total area planted is offset by a forecast increase in yields," general manager of NAB Agribusiness Khan Horne said.
"Without good falls in the next eight weeks, the area planted to wheat is expected to fall considerably in south eastern Australia.
"In contrast, good subsoil moisture in northern New South Wales and Queensland is expected to result in planting of similar areas to last season, and Western Australia is also expected to continue the strong recovery seen last year."
The area planted to canola and barley is also expected to fall this season.
NAB forecasts prices to remain under pressure globally in the short term.
"At this stage, any major rally in prices will be contingent on two key factors: an improvement in the global economic outlook; or significant weather disruptions in key grain producing countries in 2009-10," Mr Horne said.
"Demand for feed grains in the US livestock sector remains weak due to poor consumer demand, while reduced ethanol demand is also contributing to lower prices."
Email a friend