"Lower 2009 returns are caused by higher input costs and declining commodity prices," said Gary Schnitkey, U of I Economist.

"In 2009, non-land costs for corn are projected at $517 per acre, $89 higher than the 2008 non-land costs of $428 per acre.

"On the commodity price side, farmers received an average of $4.05 per bushel for corn in 2008. It's expected that they will receive $3.25 per bushel for corn in 2009."

The projections are based on crop budgets from the Farm Business Farm Management System (FBFM), yield estimates from National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS), and revised commodity price projections.

Based on estimates released by the National Agricultural Statistical Service, 2009 yields are projected at 200 bushels per acre for corn and 51 bushels per acre for soybeans.

These yield estimates are slightly above 2008 yields of 199 bushels for corn and 50 bushels for soybeans.

The 200 bushel expected 2009 yields is above the five-year average yield of 188 bushels per acre. The 51 bushel expected 2009 yield for soybeans is below the five-year average of 54 bushels per acre.

Returns in 2009 include an ACRE payment on corn of $25 per acre. This $25 payment represents an average payment across acres enrolled and not enrolled in ACRE.

ACRE payments, based on a $3.25 season-average-price, are projected above the $25 per acre payment for farms enrolled in ACRE and would be in the $60 per acre range.

The 2009 returns could vary from the above projections. At this point, changes in commodity prices have the most potential to change returns. Increases in corn and soybean prices will increase returns while declines in prices will reduce returns.

"An individual farm can have large variance from these averages because of yield, price, or cost differences from the averages.

In 2009, there will be sizable variations in non-land costs across farms, as fertilizer prices varied greatly between the fall and the spring. Timing of purchase will have a large impact on non-land costs," Schnitkey said.