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 Massive crop despite it all 

Massive crop despite it all

20 Feb, 2011 03:00 AM
THE FOCUS within the Australian grains industry has been on the devastation caused by the floods down the east coast over the 2010-11 harvest, however, the latest Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) crop report has found there was still a massive crop.

Total winter crop production is flagged at 42.1 million tonnes, up 19pc on the previous year.

It’s a figure that has attracted commentary suggesting it may be too high, and not factor in fully the extent of flood damage.

However Ron Storey, Australian Crop Forecasters, said, as a ballpark figure, it was not too far out.

“Their figure for wheat is at 26.3 million tonnes, while we have a number in the mid-25s.

“I think possibly they may be close on the volume, but given that test weights are down, it might be a little high in terms of tonnages.

“There’s no doubt, though, that in spite of the weather, its been a very big crop.”

ABARES has gone relatively low in terms of flood damage, only bringing back production 1.1 million tonnes, or 2.5pc from its December crop report.

It said quality, more so than yield was the major impact of the flooding.

Feedback, coming from a telephone survey of 380 grain producers who had participated in the 2010 Australian Agricultural and Grazing Industries Survey found that while some grain growers reported significant losses to crops and damage to their property from floods, most indicated that their crop yields were high, and in line with earlier expectations.

Along with that, ABARES reported slightly better than expected final figures out of drought-ravaged Western Australia.

Of the major winter crops, wheat production, 26.3 million tonnes, is 20 per cent higher than last season.

Barley production is estimated to have increased by 18 per cent compared with last season, to 9.3 million tonnes, and canola production is estimated to have increased by 11 per cent to 2.1 million tonnes in 2010–11.

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The ABARE report suggests 2.5 Mt less crop than December forecast due to flooding with better than forecast WA crop making up some of the loss to the national yield. This inidicates aprox $750 million dollar in lost production to flood. Early indications suggest a further 10 million tonnes of wheat downgraded to feed due to weather indicating approx $1 billion loss of value of production due to the weather in the wheat crop alone. Therefore it is fair to say that over $1.75 billion, or up to 20%, has been wiped of the potential income from grains in the East coast due to the harvest weather. This is not to say that the resulting yields and exceptionally good feed prices do not mitigate the weather, but it is not fair to use comparisons to the previous crop when assessing the impact of weather on this crop and it does little to ease the impact of this season on individual growers some of whom lost everything. I am not asking for anything except fair reporting of the impact of the weather on the 2010 winter crop. Let us hope growers can capitalise on the bright outllook for 2011 with high indicative prices and good starting moisture.
Posted by Pete Mailler, 20/02/2011 4:11:48 AM
We didn't get flooded but wet weather reduced our harvested area by 45% and of what we were able to harvest 90% was feed grade or worse.

Certainly no records here.

Posted by The Quiet Farmer, 21/02/2011 3:13:54 PM

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