Better seasonal forecasting, improved climate risk management and development of strategic responses to a range of climate change scenarios are the aims of the Grains Research and Development Corporation’s (GRDC) $1.8 million contribution to the Managing Climate Variability Program (MCVP).
GRDC program m for manager agronomy, soils and environment, Dr Martin Blumenthal, says increasing climate variability experienced in recent seasons has focused the concerns of growers and the Australian Government on the long-term future of the grains industry in the face of climate change.
Dr Blumenthal said recent research – including the GRDC's previous MCVP from 2002-07 – had identified a number of ocean-atmosphere systems which drove the climate in Australia and now the focus was to determine how they interacted with each other so that seasonal forecasting could be more accurate.
"There is a move away from statistical forecasts in the research and a move towards developing simplified models involving these interactions that will enable grain producers to better manage climate risk," he said.
"While models are more accurate than they were, say, 10 years ago and growers and the industry are increasingly confident in using them to manage climate risk and plan cropping programs, the accuracy of earlier models is diminishing with climate change.
"For example, some models suggest we should be getting drier springs but instead we're generally getting drier autumns.
"Growers need more accurate tools to not only manage risk but to adapt to climate change in the long term.
"We also need to be able to downscale these models to a regional level for them to be relevant, and to incorporate them with economic models and cropping models like Yield Prophet."
Dr Blumenthal said Australian growers had already achieved a great deal in adapting to increasing climate variability and climate change on a season-by-season basis, and were well-equipped to continue to do so.
He said an important part of the MCVP would be for the GRDC to work closely with advisers and agribusiness.
"They have made important strides in recognising the potential impact and are keen to work with growers to adapt to the changing climate and its anticipated effects – increasing temperatures, drier conditions, high intensity storms and erratic distribution of rainfall," he said.
"Growers will be continually adjusting the farming systems to cope, and the research sector must also aim at providing additional tools.
"Growers will need crop varieties more tolerant to climate extremes such as drought and frost, and may also have to consider growing other crops altogether.
"In addition to funding research that helps to provide these tools, through the MCVP the GRDC is working at a high level with bodies such as the Bureau of Meteorology, the CSIRO and Land & Water Australia to coordinate research which improves the sustainability of grain production in the face of climate change."
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