News 
 National Rural News 
 Grains and Cropping 
 General 
 Grain prices kick back in New Year 

Grain prices kick back in New Year

05 Jan, 2012 03:00 AM
THERE was some welcome news for growers over the festive period, with Australian grain prices kicking around $10 a tonne and international futures rising by more than that.

The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose for eight sessions in a row on its March 12 contract, posting close to an 8.5pc increase on the lows just before Christmas.

The March 12 contract is currently sitting at US652 cents a bushel, a rise equivalent to $A15-20/t.

And the news is better for the many Australian growers with unsold lower grade milling wheat, with price rises right across the wheat complex.

The major physical issue bringing prices up has been dryness in South America at a crucial part in the corn growing season there.

Dry conditions in South America are linked to the current La Nina event in the Pacific Ocean.

AgFarm regional manager Sam Heagney said the problems in the corn sector, which already has a tight balance sheet, would provide a drag for lower grade milling wheat.

There is also support from the fund managers, whose investment is so crucial in determining futures prices.

John Williams, executive director of the Australian Commodity Research Institute, said the funds were bullish on the majority of agricultural commodities.

“There has been less interest in Chicago soft wheat, ethanol and soybeans, but there is a more bullish feeling even for these commodities amongst the fund managers,” Dr Williams said.

He said he believed the best marketing opportunities this year would come around February, before northern hemisphere crop condition becomes more certain.

Mr Heagney said few farmers had acted on the slight price gain as yet.

“The rise is a positive as it is a change in the market, but realistically, a $10/t rise, at a traditionally quiet time of the year, is unlikely to be enough to trigger many sales.”

He said Australian farmers had largely shut up shop during December in reaction to falling prices.

“There was a reduction in physical sales by farmers in response to the price drop.”

The key for growers, Mr Heagney said, was to set up an orderly marketing program and stick to it.

“Uncertainty around market movements means a disciplined selling program is important.

“You could simply sit on all of your unsold grain and hope the market will lift, but this is a huge gamble. If you chip away making sales evenly though the year, you will average out your returns.”

He said many farmers found this out the hard way, sitting on unsold grain last year as the market fell away, stubbornly waiting for a price rise that never occurred.

However, he said the current production issues in South America showed how touchy the world market was to negative news.

“This news is just what Australian growers have been looking for, it renews a bit of hope in prices going up.

“We’ve seen it only takes one production glitch for things to move up pretty rapidly.”

Mr Heagney said the rise was especially good for those holding soft milling wheat.

“The ASWs and APWs felt the brunt of the price fall, and this current spike has seen a lift right across the complex.”

He urged growers to closely monitor the market.

“The other factor that boosts prices locally is when there are shorts in the market and an exporter is looking to fill a boat.

“This can give quite a healthy short-term boost to prices.”

Print
Increase Text Size
Decrease Text Size

comments


Date: Newest first | Oldest first
$10 a ton Gregor WOW!!! A truly inspiring article
Posted by Dave Noakes, 5/01/2012 3:10:53 PM
Dave,

Surely a $10 rise is better than a $10 fall?

Posted by blahblah, 5/01/2012 4:41:09 PM
With some grades of wheat having bottomed out at all-time record real harvest time lows it’s an albatross around the neck of the deregulated grain trade that they want to pretend never happened
Posted by Ken, 6/01/2012 12:13:11 PM

post a comment


Screen name  *
Email address  *
Remember me?
Comment  *
 
We invite and encourage our readers to post comments. Comments are moderated and will appear as soon as our editor has approved them. When posting comments you agree to be bound by our Terms and Conditions.
Related Coverage
ARTICLES
30 December, 2011
02 January, 2012
04 January, 2012
POLL
Q: Should State governments embrace wind farm technology?

Yes
(49.5%)

No
(50.5%)

Total Votes: 398
Poll Date: 02 January, 2012

Most popular articles

Advertisement



The Land







Weather brought to you by:

Weatherzone

Classifieds

Front Page

Current Issue
Privacy Policy | Conditions of Use | Advertising Terms | Copyright © 2012. Fairfax Media.
 SEND...
 SAVE...
 SHARE...