Malcolm Turnbull is set to win party room support on Sunday for negotiations with the Government on the emissions scheme, but it will be only the start of the toughest month of his difficult leadership.
Opposition sources say getting the go-ahead for the amendments that spokesman Ian Macfarlane will put to the party room is now not a big issue.
The Nationals have agreed to support the negotiations. Their Senate leader, Barnaby Joyce, when asked if he was happy for Mr Turnbull to negotiate with the Government, said yesterday: "Well, he has to try and turn the volume of this ridiculous scheme down."
Liberal sources say the crunch point for Mr Turnbull has moved beyond Sunday's meeting to the outcome of the negotiations and how the Opposition should react to that.
If the Government accepts some changes while rejecting others, the Opposition will have to make an on-balance judgement on the legislation.
Mr Turnbull at the weekend appeared to be laying the ground for the negotiations to fail and the Opposition to vote down the legislation. But some sources said he seemed to think a deal might be reached.
Senator Joyce reaffirmed that "at the end, I cannot see how any of these amendments are going to get passed and I would put the house on it that we will be voting against" the scheme.
The Nationals have made it clear for months they are headed to voting against the legislation.
The scheme was "a disaster for our nation, so at the end of the day we have to vote against this tax", Senator Joyce said.
Climate Change Minister Penny Wong, in Beijing, hit back, saying Senator Joyce's approach was not in the spirit of "good-faith negotiations".
"I'm sure that that would be very clear to many Australians," she said. "He suggested that the tactic from the National Party, from his perspective, is that you put up amendments, but even if they are agreed to, you won't pass the bill."
Senator Wong also raised the bar for the Opposition's amendments, saying it was critical they were fiscally responsible.
"These negotiations don't occur in the abstract," she said. There was a cost associated with making more significant concessions to industry sectors.
"They are going to have to be more responsible than just simply putting forward the latest wish-list from some aspects of industry," she said. "If you exempt more industries from contributing to climate change, that increases the cost of the scheme to the economy."
The amendments would give more protection to energy-intensive, trade-exposed industries, the coal industry, electricity generators and agriculture.
"We are willing to have a good-faith negotiation, but if Mr Turnbull says he is going to be economically responsible, then the party room amendments should be similarly economically responsible," Senator Wong said.
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