COUNTRY people see this election as much closer than a lay-down Labor victory, with just under 50 per cent of farmers yet to be convinced the Government will be returned for a second term, according to an exclusive Rural Press poll.
While most of the 700 respondents in the farmer-only survey say they will be voting for the Coalition when Australians head to the polls on August 21, 51pc don't think the Coalition will get over the line and believe Labor will win.
More than a quarter of farmers surveyed don't know which side will clinch power, and 23pc believe the Coalition can reclaim Government just one term after being thrown out by former Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd.
And in the key battleground State of Queensland, which has attracted most of the campaigning spotlight since the election was called almost three weeks ago, 46pc of farmers believe Labor will win, but 55pc either don't know or think victory will go the Coalition's way.
And while just over half of farmers nationally think a win will go to Labor, it's certainly not how farmers are planning on voting.
The Coalition will secure a combined 64pc of the farmer vote nationally, according to the poll, with 42pc of the farming vote going the way of the Liberals, and 22pc going to The Nationals.
Just 8pc of farmers have committed to voting Labor at this election, the survey has revealed, although 22pc still haven't committed to which way their vote will go at the election.
The Greens, which is making a big pitch for rural votes during this year's election campaign, will secure 3pc of farmers' votes, while Independents will pick up 3pc also.
In the preferred Prime Minister stakes, 38pc of farmers want to see Tony Abbott as the next leader of the country, while 16pc say Joe Hockey is the man they'd like in the top job.
Julia Gillard is the preferred as PM for 15pc of farmers, while 13pc of farmers say they don't care who the next PM is.
State Government performance will affect the way farmers in some States, especially NSW and Queensland, vote federally this year.
But the merciless ousting Kevin Rudd in late June, which took place over a swift 14 hours in the last sitting week of Parliament when factional powerbrokers shifted their support to Julia Gillard, will have little impact on how farmers vote this year.
76pc of farmers said the "Kevin Rudd factor" would have no influence on their voting pattern on August 21, while 22pc said it would.
There was a slight difference in the response in Mr Rudd's home State of Queensland, with a marginally lower higher 30pc of farmers saying the way Mr Rudd was removed from office would affect they way they vote.
A clear majority of farmers won't be changing the way they vote at this election to the last one, with 80pc of farmers nationally saying their vote won't change to the one they cast in 2007 – that figure is even stronger in the States of Queensland and in South Australia and the Northern Territory.
But 11pc will change the way the vote, while 9pc of farmers are still undecided.
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