The Nationals will die like the Democrats unless they tackle their "extremely serious" problems of shrinking support, membership and financial resources, former leader John Anderson warns in a stark assessment of the party's future.
Mr Anderson, who gives a report on the party to its management committee tomorrow, said doing nothing was not an option for the Nationals.
His review is keenly awaited for how strongly it argues the case for a merger with the Liberal Party, which Mr Anderson supports.
It canvasses the pros and cons of four options: the Nationals amalgamating into a single non-Labor entity, differentiating themselves more, sitting on the cross benches, and continuing the Coalition status quo.
Mr Anderson said the terms of reference did not allow a direct recommendation for merger.
The report comes as the Queensland Nationals and Liberals struggle towards a merger amid considerable infighting.
The Nationals have only 10 House of Representatives members, compared with 23 in a smaller house in the mid-1970s.
Mr Anderson said that those who argued for the status quo - continuing as a separate party - had not been convincing in their submissions to the inquiry on the core issues of financing and attracting members.
The merger proposal generated stronger submissions, for and against, than did other issues.
"Neither side (in the merger argument) should under-estimate the strength of the opposing view," he said.
Former leaders Doug Anthony, Ian Sinclair and Tim Fischer all believe the interests of country people would be best served by a single non-Labor entity.
"Without radical surgery, the party will die," Mr Anderson said. "It has to get realistic."
Part of this realism is the need to rebalance the focus between state and federal arenas, to give more attention to the federal.
"That is increasingly where the policy issues affecting country Australia are resolved.
"At present, it's a state-based party and there is too much focus on state elections rather than federal elections," Mr Anderson said.
The inquiry had demographers look at the party's membership prospects, and it faces a "critical problem in the next decade".
Mr Anderson said a merger would be difficult if approached on a state by state basis.
In Queensland, the Nationals and Liberals are fighting over who gets the state presidency in the proposed merged party.
The Nationals want the president chosen by a combined vote of delegates from the two parties, which would be expected to give the post to them if it was an open field.
The Liberals say that because the leadership of the new party is going to Nationals leader Lawrence Springborg, only Liberals should be able to stand for the presidency.
Liberal sources accuse the Nationals of playing hardball.
They say if the Liberals do not get the presidency, the merger is unlikely to win the necessary support of the Liberal organisation federally.
Email a friend