OFFICIAL costings of the Coalition's election policies have found a hole of at least $7 billion over four years, according to figures released last night.
The departments of Treasury and Finance, in a report handed to the three key rural independent MPs yesterday, found the Coalition policies would improve the budget bottom line by just $4.5 billion - not the $11.5 billion claimed.
The figures have dealt a blow to Mr Abbott's hopes of securing the support of the rural independents to form the next Australian government on the grounds of being a responsible economic manager.
Tony Windsor, one of the key MPs who will decide Mr Abbott's political fate, said last night the discrepancies raised questions about the Coalition's integrity. ''The Coalition must explain these discrepancies,'' he said.
But he said the discrepancies did not ''rule them out of the game altogether''.
Treasurer Wayne Swan said through a spokesman that the costings ''shambles'' was evidence of the risk the Liberals posed to the budget and the economy. ''This huge costings black hole finally proves why Mr Abbott and Mr Hockey abandoned Peter Costello's charter of budget honesty,'' he said.
But Mr Abbott said late last night that Treasury and Finance officials had confirmed that, in their view, 95-96 per cent of Coalition costings were correct. ''Even under the worst case scenario considered by Treasury and Finance, our bottom line will be $7 billion better than Labor over the forward estimates,'' he said.
''The Coalition has carefully considered the worst case $4 billion in adjustments identified by Treasury and Finance and we remain confident that we will deliver on our commitments.''
Among the areas of discrepancy found by officials were calculations on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, the Paid Parental Leave Scheme and the expanded education tax refund.
Costing on Labor's policies were also released - and were better than claimed. Labor said it would improve the bottom line by $44 million over four years, while the departments said the savings would be $106 million.
The opposition did not submit most of its policies for costing during the election campaign, giving as an excuse that there had been a leak of information about an earlier costing.
Mr Windsor and the other two rural independents - Bob Katter and Rob Oakeshott - last week pressed for the policies to be submitted for costing. Mr Abbott at first resisted, but then capitulated on Friday.
The costings were released hours after the Greens yesterday signed a formal agreement to support a minority Labor government - despite receiving no assurance from Julia Gillard that she will try to bring forward the introduction of an emissions trading scheme. Ms Gillard's office last night confirmed that the deal with the Greens had not altered Labor's timetable on an ETS, which stipulates no review before 2012.
The postponement of plans for a price on carbon was considered a key factor in Labor's slump in the polls earlier this year, and in the dumping of Kevin Rudd as prime minister.
In doing a deal with the Greens, however, Ms Gillard has all but abandoned another unpopular climate policy: her election promise for a citizen's assembly to gain community consensus for a price on carbon.
Instead, the Labor-Greens deal includes a commitment to set up a committee of MPs and experts who share a common goal to place a price on carbon.
The deal also means that if Ms Gillard remains prime minister, Parliament will debate and vote on same-sex marriage.
The newly elected Greens MP for Melbourne, Adam Bandt, told The Age that one of his priorities would be to introduce legislation to end marriage discrimination.
He would be assisted in this by an agreement from Labor that Parliament must devote at least 2½ hours per sitting week to private members' bills.
On climate change, Mr Bandt confirmed Labor gave no undertaking to act soon on a carbon price. ''We will be pushing, obviously, for there to be a legislative response. But there's no commitment that will happen in this term of government.''
He said the Greens were ''working on the presumption'' the climate change committee would replace the citizens' assembly, a Labor election commitment that was widely condemned, in which 150 people would be chosen to try to garner consensus on a carbon price.
Mr Abbott said the deal indicated Ms Gillard was prepared to junk policy and principle in her quest for power. ''The citizens assembly was always a dud policy but it was hers and now it's been junked at the direction of the Greens.''
Mr Abbott said coalition members could not sit on the proposed climate committee because it was ''basically the carbon tax committee''.
Ms Gillard claimed the assembly plan was not dead, saying it was just one ''mechanism'' to achieve consensus.
''Am I going to get hung up on mechanisms? No I'm not. Am I hung up on the outcome? Yes I am, and the outcome is about developing greater community consensus.''
Mr Abbott accused the Greens and Labor of ''consumating'' a pre-existing deal.
He said the Greens would be ''in the driver's seat'' if Labor retained government. ''What this means is that there will be a carbon tax, there will be a higher mining tax, there will be funding cuts for independent schools and there will never be any offshore asylum processing,'' Mr Abbott said.
He also said Australia now had two coalitions - Liberal-National and Labor-Green. ''Only one of these coalitions will be good for regional Australia,'' Mr Abbott said.
The Greens' deal brings Labor's effective numbers in the House of Representatives to 73. The Coalition is also on 73, counting maverick WA National Tony Crook.
This means that to govern Ms Gillard or Mr Abbott has to get the support of three out of the four independents.
Tasmanian independent Andrew Wilkie plans to meet with two of Ms Gillard's advisers today to thrash out details of pokies policy, as he wrestles with which major party to back.
He said last night he had received a detailed response to his 20-point list of priorities in a meeting with Mr Abbott and would consider it overnight.
He held out hopes of achieving a ''good chunk'' of his demands, led by the rebuilding of Royal Hobart Hospital and statutory limits on poker machine bets and losses.
After rejecting Labor's initial offer, Mr Wilkie said he would this morning meet Ms Gillard's advisers to discuss pokies.
Mr Wilkie said his decision was taking longer than he had hoped, and he was unable to say when it would be announced. He said the Greens' deal with Labor would have no influence on him.
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