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 Wivenhoe release comes as La Nina peaks 

Wivenhoe release comes as La Nina peaks

15 Feb, 2011 06:34 AM
ONE year’s worth of south-east Queensland’s drinking water supply will be released from Wivenhoe Dam to avoid further flooding, although weather forecasters say the worst of the wet season is over.

About 290,000 megalitres of water will be released from the dam later this week to mitigate flooding, Natural Resources Minister Stephen Robertson announced yesterday.

Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Ben Annells this morning said the La Nina system responsible for monsoonal rains in the state had peaked.

He said there was a 50 per cent chance of the south-east corner receiving above average rainfall for the rest of the summer.

‘‘The monsoon tends to come in bursts; it looks as though it has peaked,’’ Mr Annells said.

‘‘We do have another one and a half months where the average rainfalls are still quite high, but traditionally we do not get as much rainfall from April.’’

Wivenhoe Dam overflows during January's flood. Photo: Dean Saffron

He said the chance of heavy rain dropped gradually after January.

The average rainfall for Brisbane in February is 158 millimetres, with 48 millimetres falling in the past fortnight.

In March, the average rainfall is 141 millimetres, compared to an average of 92.5 millimetres in April.

Brisbane received nearly double its average rainfall last month, with 315.8 millimetres falling over the city.

The Sunshine Coast received 558 millimetres of rain, compared to the monthly average of 141.7 millimetres.

Stephen Robertson told ABC Radio this morning the decision to release 25 per cent of southeast Queensland’s drinking water supply was made with an ‘‘abundance of caution’’.

‘‘The ongoing advice from the Bureau of Meteorology is that we are still in a strong La Nina weather pattern,’’ he said.

‘‘It’s based on that advice that we have taken a very precautionary approach.’’

The dam’s role in last month’s flooding of Brisbane remains controversial, with some critics claiming that earlier releases of water would have stopped the inundation of up to 20,000 properties.

Ipswich Mayor Paul Pisasale said some people may be concerned the equivalent of one year’s drinking supply will be released from the dam.

"I’d rather deal with people complaining about their lawns dying, than see more homes and properties destroyed by floods," he said.

"More people would be nervous if it’s still raining and Wivenhoe is still full.

"I’m pleased they’re releasing water ... let’s be on the safe side and have Wivenhoe Dam used for flood mitigation."

Low-lying roads near Ipswich, such as Colleges Crossing, Savages Crossing and Twin Bridges, were likely to be closed during the release.

Ipswich councillor Paul Tully said it was possible the Moggill Ferry would again have to suspend services as debris rushed down the Brisbane River.

"I’d say there will be a lot of speculation, a lot of concern and apprehension," he said.

"People will be talking. People who use Colleges Crossing will probably be angry.

"The dam release also might bring back some fears that maybe something more in terms of rainfall is being predicted."

Mr Robertson said the Brisbane River would not break its banks as a result of the planned releases.

"There will be no significant downstream impacts," he said.

Seqwater chief executive Peter Borrows said it was too difficult to say whether a 25 per cent release would stop another flood on the scale of those seen in January - but guessed it was "extremely unlikely".

"It would have had to have been a major reduction in the storage to have any impact on a major flood event," he said.

Mr Borrows stood by the management of the dam, saying it went by the book in the face of unprecedented flooding.

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Why do people always panic when it's too late? I can understand them wanting to increase the flood storage and needing several days to release the water so it not a hazard downstream. But what they should do is only release say 5-10% now. Then get permission & a system in place so that IF another major rain event is forecast that is likely to produce flooding, then they release another 10-20% water in the days before the rain hits. That way they don't waste the water when we may not get another major event this year anyway.

And doesn't the dam have a flood peak dampening effect during a flood event anyway even if it's full?

It'll be interesting watching how drought and flood play out over the next couple of years!

Posted by Ride2Wk, 15/02/2011 7:55:42 AM
We have over 20,000 home owners who's properties will be devalued by up to 30% because of Robertson's man made flood. At a median price of $450,000 each that 30% loss is $135,000/family. At a total loss in value of $2.7 billion before a single repair is made, this clown of a Minister is looking like a very expensive indulgence.

Ride2wk is correct. There is no need to make this release right now. The river can take more than 200,000 ML/day without causing serious flooding and it can take more than 12 hours for flood waters to flow into the top of the Dam. So this adjustment can be made with only 24 hours warning of serious rain.

Posted by Ian Mott, 15/02/2011 11:05:31 AM
Dear Ian, I am sorry to have to tell you that you are wrong this time. This was not a man made flood. The dam was well managed in the circumstances.

The only problem that I saw was that it appeared to me that on the morning after the Toowoomba storm the authorities were so shocked by what they were confronted with in the Lockyer Valley that they failed for maybe four or six hours to notice that post 9am it was again raining across half of the Wivenhoe catchment at a rate of more than 50mm/hr for several hours, with an average which must have been at least 150mm, maybe 200 mm in about 4 hrs or less.

This extended to around 225mm in three and a half hours at Lyons Bridge on the Lockyer.

That is where Brisbane's main flood came from. Had they been watching more closely they might have opened the gates maybe 4 hrs earlier. Not much really.

People who complain about 106% in the dam have already forgotten the drought. And it will be interesting to see if the people releasing this water have placed too much confidence in the weather forecasts.

Posted by Ted O'Brien, 16/02/2011 9:49:31 PM
Load of bollocks, Ted. It was 106% on Friday morning, it pissed down all weekend and got to 191% by Monday morning.

By which time it was only 4 inches away from an uncontrolled release. So when another 100mm fell on Tuesday that delivered another 645,000 ML they had no choice but to let the whole lot go as it came in.

This panic release accounted for 80% of total flows. If they had simply let an extra 100,000 ML/day go on Fri/Sat/Sun/Mon (on top of the 100,000 ML they did release) then the Tuesday night release would only have needed to be the same 200,000 ML.

It takes 300,000 ML/day to produce minor flooding in the CBD.

Check out the article and thread at http://joannenova.com.au/2011/01/brisbane%e2%80%99s-man-made-flood-peak/ and get yourself up to speed.

Posted by Ian Mott, 17/02/2011 12:00:44 PM

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