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 Hot, hot, hot three months ahead: BOM 

Hot, hot, hot three months ahead: BOM

22 Sep, 2009 02:18 PM
The latest seasonal outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology is a mixed bag for farmers across Australia, but they all have one thing in common - the next three months are probably going to be hotter than average.

The Bureau today released its national outlook for temperatures and rainfall for the October to December period.

The bad news is that the odds have shifted in favour of a drier than normal season across parts of northeastern and southeastern Australia.

But on the other hand, the odds have shifted in favour of a wetter than normal season in western and central WA.

For the rest of the country the chances of receiving above average rainfall are roughly 50:50 (see maps).

But the national outlook for maximum and minimum temperatures averaged over the December quarter shows moderate to strong shifts in the odds favouring higher than average temperatures across nearly all of Australia.

The chance that the average October-December maximum temperature will exceed the long-term median maximum temperature, is above 75pc across most of southern and eastern Australia.

Chances exceed 80pc for southeast Australia, southwest WA, and a small region in central Queensland.

The Bureau says the outlook is a result of recent warm conditions in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

The Pacific influence (El Niño) dominates the outlook in eastern Australia, while the Indian Ocean has had a greater influence on the probabilities in WA.

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comments


Date: Newest first | Oldest first
Sounds like BOM are up to their usual Alarmist rhetoric.
Posted by Len, 23/09/2009 12:10:29 PM
The BOM said we were going to get 10-20mm of rain here last night, but we never got a drop. If they can't forecast 6 hrs out, how can we be silly enough to believe 3 month forecasts?
Posted by mick, 23/09/2009 9:53:55 PM

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The chances of exceeding median rainfall between October and December. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Click on the image to enlarge.
The chances of exceeding median rainfall between October and December. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Click on the image to enlarge.
The chances of exceeding average maximum temperatures during October to December. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
The chances of exceeding average maximum temperatures during October to December. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
The chances of exceeding average minimum temperatures between October and December. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
The chances of exceeding average minimum temperatures between October and December. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
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