The good news, however, is that the bureau's models also indicate just a low chance of an El Niño (dry) pahse returning during 2008.

Rather, the BOM model indicates a fairly neutral position for the rest of 2008 - hopefully an indication of 'normal' seasonal rains.

As the graph shows, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) at the start of this week has fallen to +4.4 - a figure sharply down from a peak of above +20 at the start of 2008.

And the SOI has fallen below the critical +6.

If the SOI is maintained at or above +6 for two months or more, it usually indicates the development of an above-average rainfall period.

Conversely, a 'deep' and consistently negative SOI pattern (less than about minus 6 over a two month period) is usually related to a high probability of below median rainfall for many areas of Australia at certain times of the year, according to the bureau.

In Queensland, AgForce drought coordinator Rod Saal said the bureau’s model indicates that the decline in La Niña contributed to the below-average rainfall to large parts of eastern and northern Australia during March and April.

The bureau’s computer model predictions show Pacific Ocean temperatures gradually increasing over the next two seasons, but remaining near-average.

Mr Saal says there are some regions, such as Queensland’s central coast, which have had good summer rain.

They are well on the way to recovery from drought.

However there are large areas of the state – including metropolitan Brisbane – where despite some rain and early promise, the drought is continuing and there will be no recovery until next summer at the earliest.

“Thousands of head of cattle are being sold from individual properties in north-west Queensland where the summer wet season was not good enough to carry stock through the coming winter," he said.

"In other regions, such as Roma, some producers have had a bumper summer crop while others are still carting water for cattle.

“What is really concerning is that significant planting rain is required during May and June for a successful winter wheat crop to be produced and that is looking increasingly unlikely.”

In areas where it hasn’t yet rained to any extent, AgForce has been gathering information from members to help build a case for extension of EC support beyond the June review date.