The Bureau says trade wind strength has returned to near normal over the past fortnight, slightly reducing the excessive warmth of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

However, significant areas remain more than 2°C above average at the surface, and over 4°C warmer than normal at depth.

Climate models suggest that tropical Pacific temperatures may have peaked for this event, but they are likley to remain above El Niño thresholds until the southern autumn.

Despite a rise in recent days, the Bureau says the Southern Oscillation Index has generally remained at levels typical of an El Niño event over the past fortnight.

Similarly, cloudiness and rainfall near the equator have remained enhanced, typical of a mature El Niño event. The influence of El Niño events on Australian rainfall typically declines by mid to late summer.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has a reduced impact upon Australia over the summer months.

The latest approximate 30-day SOI value is -5; the monthly value for December was -7.

Cloudiness near the date-line remains above average.

The data is consistent with a moderate strength El Niño event, which most leading international computer models surveyed by the Bureau predict will persist through the southern hemisphere summer, but decline thereafter.