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 Economic crisis won't stop growing global food demand 

Economic crisis won't stop growing global food demand

23 Jan, 2009 05:51 PM
World demand for food will continue growing, despite the current financial crisis, because of the long-term drivers that are little affected by the financial situation, according to a Rabobank report.

But there will be challenges for and changes in how agribusiness provides that food, according to an analysis by the Rabobank Food & Agribusiness Research (FAR) team.

Global economic growth is expected to have declined 3.9pc in 2008 and is expected to decline 2.3pc this year after four years of above-average growth.

Most of the decline has occurred in advanced economies.

Developing nations will continue to grow, albeit at a lower rate, according to the report, authored by FAR analyst Harry Smit.

However, inflation will "come down significantly" this year, and food price inflation will come down even faster as agricultural commodity prices have declined rapidly over the past few months, Smit said.

At the same time, the world's economy will begin recovering, beginning in the US in the second half of this year and in Europe and other parts of the world in 2010, he said.

Agribusiness faces challenging times ahead, especially as costs of production increase, especially costs for fuel and interest rates for financing.

Mr Smit said that, in an era of volatility, the costs of and prices for agricultural commodities often cannot be explained by fundamentals but by short-term, sudden and unexpected developments and the reactions that they trigger.

For instance, a quick spike in the corn and soybean markets last summer hurried some players - ethanol producers, cattle feeders, poultry producers and feed manufacturers - to lock in input prices at high prices.

So they are still are not benefiting from the extent to which prices have dropped.

"This points to the importance of developing smarter sourcing strategies," he said.

The impact of lower margins and volatility likely will lead to delays in infrastructure investments at the farm, feedlot, trading and processing levels, Smit said.

Many needed investments will be postponed.

This may have "a depressing effect" on food production in the next several years, making it "even more challenging to meet the future world food requirements," he said.

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When will world civilisations learn from the ancestors. Every great civilisation, did well, had plenty, but they over populated. They had climate disasters, and ran out of food. It's time to stop the over population of this planet. Don't give me the rubbish about this planet can sustain x-amount of billions. Will there be any land left in its natural state. Driving back today through Kinglake and seeing the natural disaster of Brumby's pipeline only proves Brumby is another politician stuffing up the environment. Stuff Brumby's pipeline and put water tanks in people's back yards. Kinglake has always been a beautiful cool place to drive through, the environmental pillage by Brumby and his arrogant mates is atrocious.
Posted by MJM, 26/01/2009 2:52:18 PM

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