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 Autumn to be dry in the east, wet in the west 

Autumn to be dry in the east, wet in the west

23 Jan, 2009 10:02 AM
NSW and Queensland farmers counting on good autumn rains to break the drought have had their hopes dashed by the latest long-term forecast from the Bureau of Meteorology.

But for farmers in WA it is a different story, with good odds of a wetter than average late summer and early autumn.

The Bureau yesterday released its latest three-month climate outlook, and for most of NSW the odds of higher than average rainfall are 50:50 at best.

The outlook is worse for Queensland, with much of the Central, Western and Northern zones forecast to have just a 30-40pc chance of exceeding average rainfall as the La Nina system weakens. Those odds slip to just 20pc in a pocket of North Queensland.

The Bureau of Meteorology said that a warming in the western Pacific Ocean means that previous cooler temperatures there are unlikely to last beyond summer, lowering the chance of La Nina setting in.

"The most likely scenario is for the central and eastern Pacific to warm over the coming months and hence remain neutral [between La Nina and El Nino events]," its update stated.

The Riverina region in southern NSW and all of Victoria have marginally better than average chances of exceeding average rainfall, with the Bureau factoring in a 55pc chance of that occurring.

In South Australia, the probabilities improve with most of the State given a 55-60pc chance of better than average rainfall.

But it’s the west that has the best outlook, with most of WA given a 65-75pc chance of seeing higher rainfall due to cooling in the Indian Ocean.

Temperature wise, Queensland is forecast to have good odds of exceeding its maximum and minimum averages during the next three months, but for most of the rest of the country the odds favour an average or slightly cooler late summer and autumn.

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The chances of exceeding average rainfall between February and April. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
The chances of exceeding average rainfall between February and April. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
The chances of exceeding average maximum temperatures during February to April. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
The chances of exceeding average maximum temperatures during February to April. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
The chances of exceeding average minimum temperaturs between February and April. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
The chances of exceeding average minimum temperaturs between February and April. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
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