ON WEDNESDAY, shadow treasurer Joe Hockey said the Opposition was so shocked by the size of the budget's deficit and debt that it would take a very "responsible" approach to it. Last night, Malcolm Turnbull said that the Coalition would try to punch a $1.9-billion hole in it. That is a pretty wild approach to responsibility.
Turnbull's budget reply is in danger of making the Opposition the issue, rather than keeping the attention firmly on Labor, its deficits and debt.
By saying that the Coalition would oppose the means test on the health insurance rebate, he shifts the debate.
He will have to spend political capital defending his course.
The fact that he has put up an alternative of adding three cents to the price of each cigarette in a packet doesn't solve his problem, although the issue of a cigarette tax is before the Henry inquiry.
Turnbull would have made the Opposition much less vulnerable if he had simply put the alternative, criticised the Government for breaking its promise, but said that the Opposition would let the means test through.
It is true the Government has trashed a promise but the Howard government used to do that.
The means test is reasonable and generous — cutting in for couples at $150,000.
It is only at a combined income of $240,000 that a couple gets nothing.
Can Turnbull really defend the position that, when savings are needed, taking the rebate away from people like himself is a bad thing?
The decision to oppose the means test, which did not go to the party room, is likely to send a few tremors through Coalition MPs in marginal seats.
The Liberals are terrified of the possibility of a double dissolution.
Kevin Rudd has raised the threat of an early election as he tries to bring the Senate into line.
The Government doesn't have a double dissolution trigger yet, but alcopops are already facing their second defeat next month.
The rebate means test could be lost if Family First senator Steve Fielding or independent Nick Xenophon joined the Opposition.
But to be a trigger, it would have to be defeated a second time.
The weight would be on Fielding and Xenophon — they have both attacked the Government over the rebate and Fielding yesterday accused it of dishonesty.
We could be in for a long argument — Xenophon last night proposed a Senate inquiry.
An election this year or early next would be high risk for the Government, and is unlikely. But Turnbull's stand has ensured the speculation will escalate.
Although it is improbable that Rudd would go to the polls very early, the threat could destabilise the Opposition.
It is in the worst of shapes to have to even contemplate fighting an election — without money, without policies and without its leader having built up credibility with the public.
This is a shoot-from-the-hip gesture that is badly conceived in both tactics and substance.
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