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 Interest rate cut needed, Reserve Bank says 

Interest rate cut needed, Reserve Bank says

19/08/2008 6:12:00 PM
Borrowers take heart: the Reserve Bank of Australia feels your pain. The central bank, acknowledging a slump in borrowing, lower consumer confidence, and weaker growth prospects, says an early rate reduction may be needed.

"Less restrictive conditions could soon be called for, otherwise the risk of a deeper and more persistent slowing in the economy would increase," the bank said in the August minutes.

"On these considerations, a case could be made for an early reduction in the cash rate."

The anticipation comes in the release of the minutes from its August 5 rate meeting, when the central bank kept rates on hold at 7.25pc for the fifth consecutive month, even as it signalled to mortgage holders that the "scope" for rate cuts ahead was increasing.

The dollar dipped before the release of the minutes, before returning to trade around 86.7 US cents.

Another sign of the toll exacted by high interest rates became apparent today with a Housing Industry Association report showing the construction of new homes is forecast to fall 6pc for the 2008/2009 financial year.

The pace of building is set to slow to about 145,300 from 154,200 homes last year as the RBA's rate tightening sours the appetite for risk taking by businesses and homebuyers alike.

"Interest rate reductions will, in time, boost confidence and then construction activity, but that's a 2009-2010 story," said HIA policy chief Chris Lamont in the report.

With the supply of homes unable to jump up to meet increased demand when rates fall, the construction shortfall will make life more difficult for renters, Mr Lamont said.

Home-loan approvals dropped more than expected in June, pinched by the RBA's and bank's high interest rates.

The number of home loans, seasonally adjusted, dropped 3.7pc in June from the previous month's numbers, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The language, echoing the words used at the time of the August rate decision, depicts the economy as slowing rapidly, in part, because of forces outside RBA governor Glenn Stevens' influence.

Rate changes are the RBA's tool for influencing the pace of economic activity.

In the past five years, amid the nation's commodities export boom, the central bank has raised rates to the 12-year high of 7.25pc to prevent rising spending from triggering a recession.

Mr Stevens' efforts of halt excess consumer spending have been helped by a temporary spike in the price of oil, which shot up to $US146 per barrel in early July, and took a big chunk out of consumers' wallets, although the minutes note oil prices have eased considerable since then.

Commercial banks, such as Westpac and ANZ, have used the higher official interest rates as an opportunity to pad their own lending rates since the beginning of the year.

The average mortgage from a major bank now costs 9.6pc.

For homeowners, those added costs soak up money that would be spent on other items such as clothes and electronics.

Sales of those items have been flat or weaker in recent months.

In its minutes, the RBA noted consumer spending "had weakened considerably in 2008"....much stronger language than the view it "was slowing" in its July meeting minutes.

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Comments


Date: Newest first | Oldest first
You can bet that if the Reserve Bank drops its rates, the mainstream banks will drag the chain or stand behind the Reserve stating the cost of funds or poor investment stratedy have prevented them from reducing their previous interest rate increases.
Posted by Interest Rate Cut Needed on 19/08/2008 10:39:30 PM
The banks might be able to fool some of the people some of the time....not this time. Anybody that is willing to do some research can find out what the wholesale rate for money is.

The borrowing rate has dropped considerably (in line with oil prices??)

The banks, therefor they do not have an excuse any more.

Maybe, maybe, our fearless Treasurer has a bit of gun that he can use to persuade the banks to lower interest rates with the same speed that they put them up!! Then again, maybe maybe the banks might have been encouraged by the Reserve/Government to raise rates arbitrarily, just to take the heat from Labor.

We cannot fire the banks, but Labor can be voted out.

Posted by Peter on 21/08/2008 6:38:14 AM

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Total Votes: 613
Poll Date: 17/08/2008

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