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 Agri stocks weaken but outlook positive: CBA 

Agri stocks weaken but outlook positive: CBA

17 Mar, 2009 10:40 AM
Australia's listed agribusiness sector has weakened for the second consecutive month, according to data by the Commonwealth Bank, but it says sentiment about the broader agribusiness sector's longer term outlook is positive.

According to the March Commonwealth Bank Agri Indicators, the listed agribusiness sector weakened 8.2pc, while the broader S&P/ASX200 fell 7.3pc during the month.

The decline, although smaller than last month, brings the listed sector in line with the rest of the market.

Executive general manager of Commonwealth Bank Agribusiness, Brendan White, says the current uncertainty in world financial markets has implications for the agribusiness sector, but there are a number of positive factors which support a more optimistic medium-term outlook for the sector.

"As we heard at the recent Australian Bureau of Agricultural Research and Economics' Outlook for 2009, despite the prevailing drought conditions in southern parts of Australia and weaker commodity prices there are a number of favourable opportunities emerging for the agribusiness industry," Mr White said.

"Australia's farm export earnings will significantly benefit from the lower Australian dollar and an increase in crop production including the expected larger wheat crop.

"In addition, the global demand for food and protein particularly from the Middle East and the emerging middle class in China, India and Asia will also contribute to the positive outlook for our meat export market."

Mr White said that while the Agri Indicators reveal a negative forecast for the sector, agribusiness is not alone with the sector mirroring the general economic forecasts for the next 12 months.

"Although we are witnessing a softening in investor confidence in the listed agribusiness sector, historically it remains a resilient sector with the ability to withstand the short-term ramifications of the financial crisis and the consensus view is that it will ultimately regain wealth in the longer-term.

"Whilst we can't ignore this month's decline in the listed sector, the fundamentals of agribusiness remain solid and over time we should see investor confidence return to the sector resulting in some uplift in the Agri Indicators."

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