Before last year's Federal election social analyst Hugh Mackay told a gathering of Fairfax editors that not only would John Howard lose the election, but that Labor's long-held grip on the States and Territories would then follow suit.

That forecast was right in the first instance, and last week's polling - which had the Coalition gaining ground on Labor in nearly all of the States - pointed to a strong chance of him being on the money in the second as voters grow tired of the continual under-performance of their Labor Premiers.

One of the reasons, Mackay said, was that after long periods of stable government and prosperous times, a shift was emerging in the way our society is thinking.

After enjoying a "dreamy disengagement", people are looking for new ways to re-connect with their communities, and as such are also re-connecting with the political process. They are looking for fresh ideas and a change in their governments, meaning the succussful campaigns of the last decade not necessarily a template for success in the future.

There is such a shift in society's mindset that Mr Mackay predicted a prolonged period of political volatility at all levels of government.

The results from Saturday's by-election in Gippsland re-affirms this forecast, with a strong swing against a Federal Government that is just seven months into office.

That result also proved another political maxim: don't take voters' intelligence for granted. If Mackay's forecast is borne out, political parties should not rely on short-term populist positions - such as Kevin Rudd's cost of living campaign last year - as most voters are usually canny enough to see through the spin.

In the case of the last Federal election, it was as much about voters wanting a change from an old Government to the fresh face of Mr Rudd, who they are now holding to account - just as Mackay forecast.

And it's not just a warning for the incumbent governments - that warning also holds true for both the Coalition opposition and for the Greens.

While Liberal Leader Brendan Nelson may have won a tactical bout by putting Rudd under pressure over petrol prices, he should not think that voters are fooled by the promise of a 5c/l tax cut. If he has any chance of remaining Leader of the Opposition, he must heed Keating's lesson of "good policy is good politics".

Similarly for the Greens, which now holds the balance of power in the Senate, the time has come in which they will be judged - for the first time - by their actions and not by their propoganda.

There are dangerous times ahead for all political parties, and if Mackay's diagnosis is right, society won't be afraid to vent their anger at the ballot box.

What do you think?