YET another surge of optimism saw the stock market soar at the end of last week, with the all ordinaries up nearly 3.4 per cent in one day to close at 139.6 on Thursday.
Whoopee?
Is this the start of the great recovery? Should we rush in now while bargains last?
The Punter seriously doubts it.
Significantly, while the price of Westpac shares rose 4.6pc to $20.73 that day, the price of the $18 March put (sell) options (ASX code WBCTL7) rose even more.
The Punter, it seems, is not alone in thinking that having the right to sell $20 shares for $18 might soon be a winner.
There is no doubt that a lot of money is just waiting for the right time to invest, especially in Australia where the funds accumulating under the compulsory super scheme are enormous.
But there needs to be hard evidence that governments are actually tackling the banking mess, and not just borrowing money to prop up wealthy people who have proved they have the financial skill to lose billions.
The latest rally looks very much like a combination of think-alike computer trading and short covering by traders who have sold shares they do not own and have to scramble to buy them when the price stops falling.
If the rally continues the Punter will seriously consider further put options on some of the heavyweights in the market.
Recent wild trading has had little effect on the stock market minnows.
They continue to slide, due more to neglect rather than active selling.
Spare a thought for those minnows trying to raise desperately needed cash at prices which now look wildly optimistic.
Minotaur (MEP) managed to raise $1.6 million by selling nearly 11m shares at 15c each.
That’s a heroic result, given that you can buy the shares for 10c in the market, but at the rate it has been spending money recently, that capital raising effort will last Minotaur for only three months.
Datamotion (DMN) has had to cancel its share offer altogether.
It could well be the final nail in the coffin of the company that still hopes to make the switch from Internet software to rare-earths mining.
The Punter’s options (DMNOC) are clearly worthless.
The Punter has no financial qualifications and no links to the financial services industry. He owns shares in a number of companies featured in this column.