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Playing the waiting and watching game

THE Great October Stock Market Slump has come a little early this year.

Not that this should be any surprise.

Governments around the world, including Australia, quickly reversed their economic strategies and employed classical Keynesian economics to pump up their economies and avert a major recession after the 2008 financial crisis, but they did almost nothing about the fundamental causes of the disaster.

More than a month ago the Punter was so pessimistic he considered selling his entire portfolio.

He didn’t because he couldn’t bear to lock in his losses.

Silly boy.

He did at least “short” one of the big banks, by taking out a put option giving him the right to sell 1000 Westpac shares at $18 any time before March 29 next year.

Last time he looked the shares were already well under $19 and the option (ASX code WBCTL7) was showing a profit of more than $400.

He is sufficiently pessimistic to think Westpac shares could well fall to $16 before March, so he is letting that profit run for a bit.

Westpac (WBC) shares already offer a gross dividend yield of about 7.7 per cent, and the bank is most unlikely to go bust, so betting that Westpac is overpriced is still a risky call.

Shares in Investigator Resources (IVR), which has been on the Punter’s watchlist since it reported a significant silver find on the Eyre Peninsula in South Australia, have continued to slide.

The company is now seeking to raise $8.3 million through a share offer at 11 cents a share.

With the shares already down to about 11.5c, that is hardly a bargain, but it is fully underwritten so the company will get its money.

If the shares sink below 10c the Punter will be tempted to buy.

Greenearth Energy (GER) is offering more shares at eight cents each.

That’s more than the shares are worth on the market, and there is no underwriting, but there is a sweetener in the form of a free option with every new share, giving the right to buy more at five cents each between April 15 and October 15 next year.

The offer does not close until October 17, so the Punter will wait and think about it.

The Punter has no financial qualifications and no links to the financial services industry. He owns shares in a number of companies featured in this column.

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The Punter
To provide an indication of how investors can ride the rises and falls of the sharemarket, The Punter reports on $50,000 invested in Australian stocks.
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