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Energy punt may be the significant find of 2012

WELL, it has to be said 2011 was not the greatest year in the Punter’s long climb to millionaire status but, undaunted, he will battle on.

He has never been able to understand how the euro could possibly survive as a common currency shared by 17 very different economic and political cultures, without a strong central government running the whole show – such a government is at best a very long way off, so the Punter still assumes the euro is on its death bed.

If, as seems likely, China also gets into a bit of strife, 2012 could be rough.

So, taking a big risk and a very deep breath, the Punter has sunk $2135 into an option to sell 1000 BHP Billiton shares at $33 any time before June 27.

The options (ASX code BHPYJ8) cost him $2.085 each, plus $50 commission.

The wide spread between buying and selling prices and the higher commission charged on options means he needs the option price to increase by about 20 per cent for him just to break even – if that doesn’t happen in the next six months he loses the lot.

The Punter bought Linc Energy (LNC) at $2.20 in September and about a week later the company announced it would buy up to 5 per cent of its own shares because they were so cheap.

Since then, there has been a flood of good and potentially good news – a “significant” oil share find in South Australia; successful purchase, after initial hiccup, of ERG oilfields in the US; a memorandum of understanding with UK coal; the start-up of its fifth-generation gasifier at its Chinchilla plant in Queensland, the final phase of technology trials before commercialisation, then came enhanced oil recovery work on its US oilfields, a coal-to-diesel agreement in South Africa, and approval to explore an estimated 1.2 billion tonnes of low-grade coal in Poland as a potential feedstock for clean diesel.

But it has still not sold its Emerald coalfield.

Last time he looked, LNC was $1.09.

Either the company is expanding much too far, too fast, or it is a bargain.

Hoping he is not throwing good money after bad, the Punter bought another 1000 LNC.

n The Punter has no financial qualifications and no links to the financial services industry. He owns shares in a number of companies featured in this column.

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comments


Date: Newest first | Oldest first
Hey Punter, I like your style, much like mine.....but foolhardy in a bear market! I reckon we will both see a $1.00/sh rise on LNC as soon as the Teresa sale is realised, but the problem will be.... from what base?

I cannot see how the net asset value of LNC is anything less than $3.00/sh but look at them! .. is LNC highly undervalued ?... I guess it comes down to cash flow and the current burn rate. Few investors are interested in fantastic investments, into assets just now. Future potential cannot be factored in, everybody needs cash, the banks are drying up, the market will have to wait

Posted by Sid, 17/01/2012 4:56:56 PM, on The Land
The Punter
To provide an indication of how investors can ride the rises and falls of the sharemarket, The Punter reports on $50,000 invested in Australian stocks.

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