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Desperately seeking solid science

His questions may be phrased around science, but Senator Steve Fielding is a symbol of how far from science the global warming discussion is straying.

Senator Fielding is before the cameras, asking the questions, but “his” campaign on climate change science is the political campaign of climate change dissent. The Senator happens to be a convenient medium for politicising a message that hasn’t gained much traction with the incumbent government.

On his website, Senator Fielding has posted the answers that government scientists gave to “his” three questions on climate change science, but the site gives the last word to the four contrarian scientists advising him.

Who is using whom? In this case, it seems that the Senator is a Trojan Horse carrying dissenting views into the political system.

That might seem perfectly fair - after all, what is Penny Wong if not a mouthpiece for the orthodox view on climate change?

It comes down to the vexed question of what is good science versus unproven science, junk science and faith.

The contrarians behind Senator Fielding - professors Bob Carter and Stewart Franks, Dr David Evans and William Kininmonth - apparently think so too. Their last word in an exhaustive “due diligence” statement on orthodox climate science is that “proper due diligence on the matter can only be achieved where competent scientific witnesses are cross-examined under oath and under the strictest rules of evidence”, i.e. in the form of a Royal Commission.

But how does a Royal Commission weigh evidence which on the one hand will be endorsed by the scientific peer review process, and on the other hand won’t? Would the opinions of contrarian scientists stand on an equal footing with peer-reviewed climate change science?

If so, what then is the value of peer review?

In the ever-more rancourous debate over climate change science, every argument is presented as carrying equal weight. Anything with a Y axis and an X axis is upheld as valid science, and as a result all arguments are becoming meaningless.

The scientific team advising Penny Wong responded to Senator Fielding’s initial three questions with some clear statements. Score for the believers in climate change.

The scientific team advising Senator Fielding responded with the “due diligence” statement the Senator has posted on his website. Score to the contrarians—and to the contrarian community, possibly game over.

But the seeker after truth might then Google blogs like Deltoid or Open Mind to have what is purportedly due diligence performed on the due diligence … and then with equal ease find contrarian blogs with a completely different spin on the same data.

And so on.

What’s real, and where does it stop?

Unless there is a mutually-agreed upon channel for science to be vetted and approved as the best available, it won’t stop. The disparate bits of information that constitute climate change research can be re-packaged and re-presented to describe just about any agenda.

That leaves the bewildered public to choose a possibility. Disturbingly, the choices seem to be increasingly defined along political lines; believers to the Left, non-believers to the Right.

Political faithful seem to be able to take almost anything from their politicians and still vote along party lines. If a position on climate change has become an article of political faith, it seems likely that Reason will play a diminishing role in this discussion.

Faith, the ancient enemy of science, is reasserting itself.

There has to be a standard for scientific truth, or the nearest approximation of it, for those of us who want to stand upon something more robust than faith that our team has got it right.

The four contrarian scientists behind Senator Fielding want the standard to be set by a Royal Commission. That bypasses the scientific community’s traditional filter for accuracy, peer review.

Peer review is imperfect. Reviewers, being human, can let a paper through that other scientists will quickly identify as being wrong, a journal can choose reviewers with a known bias, or choose not to review a paper at all.

If accepted, it is the nature of the field that a scientific paper is only right until proven wrong—and that might be in the next issue of the same journal.

Science can also deliver technologically brilliant answers, only to find it asked the wrong question.

But even with the odd perverse outcome and dry gully, peer review helps sort the wheat from the scientific chaff. It’s a refining process that has helped science become tremendously powerful; an influence on every aspect of our lives.

At the moment, with a few exceptions, peer-reviewed science overwhelming concurs that global warming is real, humans are causing it, and that climate change is occurring as a result. In this context, a political response is appropriate—although whether an ETS is the right response is another question altogether.

It is to be sincerely hoped that the contrarian view is right, and that global warming and climate change is all a storm in a computer model.

But it is up to the contrarians to persuade us with science. Not science channelled through the media or Senator Fielding, but science that stands up to peer review.

If peer review is as flawed as the contrarians claim, they need to propose another impartial standard by which the scientific world can debate the matter internally, without politics clouding the view.

Otherwise we revert to faith, and potentially another of the faith-based ideological wars that have dogged humanity from the time that two tribes first conceived of different gods.

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Date: Newest first | Oldest first
Conclusion science doesn't know what is causing global warming or even if the globe is warming. However in the words of an agri-politician (whose name escapes me) whether or not global warming is a scientific reality is no longer important. Because it is now a political reality that we are going to have to live with.
Posted by Qlander, 16/07/2009 5:01:11 PM
Well said Qlander Anthropogenic climate change is scientifically unproven. We still have a heap of theories and experiences unproven and unexplained. It's a shame we might get another tax out of something so inconclusive as this.
Posted by john Michelmore, 17/07/2009 10:59:20 AM
The solution to your question lies in the definition of "Science". The community seems to beleive that "Science" is what 'Scientists' do. This is a very weak and flawed understanding. Science is a process that leads to a better understanding of how nature works. This is achieved by proposing a theory that can be tested - or a better word is "Falsified". If you cannot devise a falsifiable test for a theory, it is very bad, "junk" or "pseudo" science and cannot be trusted. No climate change scientist who is a proponenet of AGW has presented a falsifiable test. The reason - they know they would be shot down by the sceptics. The purpsoe of a Royal Commission in part would be to highlight this.
Posted by dr_rebel, 17/07/2009 11:08:49 AM
Congratulations again to Matt Cawood for some clear thinking. To spell it out (again) - the overwhelming majority of peer-reviewed science concurs that global warming is real, and that it is influenced by human activity. This is based on many decades of observation and analysis (starting with ocean temperature measurements fom the days of sailing ships!) Check the science. What is scary (as Matt C says) is that blind faith, the old enemy of science, is gaining such a hold.
Posted by nico, 17/07/2009 2:44:50 PM
Lets spell some important facts. There are at least 20,000 scientists worldwide who do not agree that anthropogenic climate change has been statistically scientifically substantiated. What is a relief is that finally people are waking up to the biggest potential money making scam in history.
Posted by John Michelmore, 18/07/2009 12:19:23 PM
"Would the opinions of contrarian scientists stand on an equal footing with peer-reviewed climate change science?" This is a false dichotomy. There is plenty of peer-reviewed research published by those who do not believe in the IPCC's politicised climate change orthodoxy. To characterise those who you disagree with as "contrarians" is disingenuous at best.
Posted by David G., 18/07/2009 5:25:20 PM
David G.

It's not that I disagree with some contrarian arguments. To a non-expert, they appear perfectly valid. My frustration is that there is no yardstick by which I can gauge their validity.

Yes, some peer-reviewed research with findings "contrary" to much of the published science on global warming and its potential effects has been published. Terrific! That is what science is about. There needs to be more. But to my knowledge, there has been no substantial peer-reviewed paper that has overturned the basic hypothesis of human-induced global warming.

If not "contrarian", what? "Skeptic" should rightly describe every scientist. I use the term "contrarian" to denote someone with a view contrary to the orthodox viewpoint. It is a more neutral term than "denialist", and more accurate than "skeptic", but I'm open to a more apt word.

Posted by Matt Cawood on 19/07/2009 9:54:37 PM
I think perhaps a slight misperception is that the path of science and increased knowledge is a more or less straight line. Yet the history of science is littered with wrong turns, detours, deadends and blind alleys. Also politics, egos and larger-than-life personalities. Sometimes the true story is discredited early. On little more than personality and politics and science goes off on a detour sometimes for decades. Before the right path is found again. Just because human generated carbon is one way of making the computer models add up doesn't necessarily mean it's the only way. The more we know, the more we know we don't know! I think that is becoming apparent the deeper science looks into this whole carbon issue.
Posted by Qlander, 20/07/2009 1:47:16 PM
Qlander - a small point, but important. The issue is not carbon, but carbon dioxide, and its characteristics in quite small quantities in the atmospehere. The greenhouse theory has been understood for decades (CO2 preventing certain wavelengths from escaping back into space), indeed it is the greenhouse effect which has kept Earth's temperature fairly stable. And yes, science has had many blind alleys and mistakes, which is why the peer-review convention developed, so that fewer mistakes get past the start. Any theory which gets through the sieve of peer-review must be fairly robust, and that's just the beginning of its career. And, as others have said, if you can conclusively prove that the world's scientists are wrong, and that global temperature is not influenced by human activities, you'll be due for a Nobel prize.
Posted by nico, 20/07/2009 4:24:44 PM
John M - some basic facts, look at the breakdown of scientists that have signed the anti agw petition - 2% are atmospheric scientists, 32% are from engineering and, metallurgy (read mining), 10% are from medicine, 18% are from aerospace and physics and 12% are form what I would call earth scientists. I am yet to see anything to disprove the hypothesis of AGW yet alone substantiate the claims of the anti AGW group. In fact I see the same arguments being rehashed over an over again whilst the overwhelming amount of evidence for the AGW jeeps growing. The IPCC states that based on the evidence that it is 90% likeliest that humans are causing global warming. If I was on a space ship and I was worried about my air supply and quality I would take a conservative approach to the issue and stop all practices that "might" be affecting my air until I knew the culprit. I know who would be the first jettisoned. Hang on the earth is a spaceship, stop stuffing up my air until I know what is happening.
Posted by the lorax, 30/07/2009 1:45:38 PM
Some senior Australian climate researchers have made an important and sombre statement, which was published in the Sydney Morning Herald (1 August). They explain how it is that we know that human activities have affected the climate, and mention some immediate threats. They note that even small temperature rises may have devastating effects on human societies. See: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/climate-change-poised-to-feed- on-itself-20090731-e4gi.html?page=-1
Posted by nico, 4/08/2009 2:04:25 PM
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